Anthropic has tripled its run rate to $30 billion in six months, overtaken OpenAI on enterprise revenue, and is quietly becoming Europe's AI partner of choice. Meanwhile, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic need up to half a trillion in public market capital this year – and that money has to come from somewhere. Climate tech investment is actually up 8%, but nobody's calling it ESG anymore.
- Anthropic's run rate hit $30 billion, tripling in six months – now ahead of OpenAI's estimated $25 billion, with 32% of the enterprise LLM API market
- Enterprise monetisation shows an 8x gap – Anthropic at $211 per monthly user versus OpenAI at $25 per weekly user
- The combined IPO capital requirement for SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could rival the entire $231 billion of US equity capital formation in 2025
- Anthropic's Mythos model achieved a 72.4% exploit-to-vulnerability ratio in cybersecurity benchmarks – up from Opus 4.6's 14.4%
- 87% of US companies quietly increased sustainability spending in 2025 despite political headwinds, just under different names
- Germany's €10 billion warship programme is four years behind schedule with the prime contractor fired – a case study in why defence procurement needs startups
Upside is a weekly podcast designed to look behind the headlines that will affect European venture-backed startups and investors.
Below are the notes from this week’s episode. Links at the bottom to tune in and stream wherever you pod.
Anthropic’s Numbers Are Getting Silly
Watch out when the media transposes ARR for annualised run rates – there’s a lot of PR baked in. But Anthropic’s trajectory is hard to argue with.
Run rate has hit $30 billion, tripling in six months. Over a thousand enterprise customers spending more than a million annually. That number doubled since February. Eight of the Fortune 10 are clients. The monetisation gap is the real story: Anthropic pulls $211 per monthly user versus OpenAI’s $25 per weekly user. An 8x difference.
EMEA is their fastest growing region. Revenues up 9x, large European accounts up 10x. On the secondary markets, OpenAI demand has fallen off a cliff while Anthropic has over $2 billion in demand at a massive premium. The valuations are converging. Trump calling them left-wing nut jobs and designating them a supply chain risk? Hasn’t mattered.
Mythos & the Cybersecurity Jump
Anthropic has had a massive week, starting with their new model Mythos. Mythos isn’t incremental. Sonnet 4.6 had a 4% exploit-to-vulnerability ratio. Opus 4.6 had 14.4%. Mythos? 72.4%. That’s not a step change. That’s a different sport. AI-driven cyber attacks are reportedly up 1,500%. Even if that number is half true, Mythos matters.
They also acquired Coefficient Bio. $400 million in Anthropic stock for a six-person startup founded last year. Dimension Capital, a Lux Capital spinout, put in $10 million, owned just over 50%, and is now sitting on $205 million in Anthropic paper. That’s venture building, not venture capital. And buying a bio startup tells you this isn’t a chatbot company. It’s a platform play. Healthcare is 20% of US GDP.
Jamie Dimon’s Annual Letter to Investors.– Right on Structure, Sketchy on Timing
Dimon’s track record: incredible on structural, multi-year calls (fiscal deficits from 2013, fintech disruption, the interest rate risk that killed SVB). Not so good on timing. He’s warned of recession for four consecutive years and the economy has defied him every time.
On inflation he’s probably right. He calls it ‘the skunk at the party’. Iran energy shock means stickier inflation, higher interest rates, supply chain reshaping. The private credit warning matters too. $1.8 trillion market, default rates potentially spiking from 2-3% to 8-9%. Not subprime, but if rates stay high those numbers will get ugly.
JP Morgan is spending $20 billion a year building AI in-house. Already achieving $2 billion in direct cost savings. Cost-neutral. That’s a telling data point.
Half a Trillion in IPOs Needs to Come From Somewhere
SpaceX has filed with the SEC at around $2 trillion. OpenAI is targeting Q4 at $850 billion with a $14 billion cash burn. Anthropic is in early talks for October.
In 2025, total US equity capital formation was $231 billion. The combined primary capital from just those three could be $250 billion or more. That money comes from the same institutions and family offices that invest in European venture funds. Fun fact: every major 2025 IPO traded down after listing.
European pipeline is thin. Revolut (I can’t see why London). Helsing at $12 billion. I don’t think they will go in 2026. Visma pulled its IPO in February. We can’t even get a SaaS listing away. Gah.
Then there’s OpenAI’s focus problem. One week they need to focus. The next they buy TBPN (The Bay Point Network, Bloomberg for Silicon Valley) for low hundreds of millions. In an IPO year. Sure, that’ll stay independent.
Climate Investing Is Back, We Just Can’t Call It That
25% of S&P 500 firms use ESG in their report titles. That’s down 40% from a year ago. But 87% of US companies quietly increased sustainability spending. They just changed the name.
In 1973, the oil crisis gave France its nuclear programme. In 1979, it drove Japan’s efficiency revolution. Same thing happening now. Decarbonisation is “energy security.” Emissions targets are “resilience.” Renewables are a geopolitical asset, not a cause. Climate tech VC was up 8% in 2025.
The catch is AI energy consumption. But AI is also building the solutions. Smarter grids, better storage, optimised demand. Same bill, different line items. If you’re building climate tech, drop the ESG pitch. Frame it as infrastructure and security. That’s the money language now.
Germany Can’t Spend Its Defence Budget Fast Enough
Germany is going from €86 billion to €152 billion in defence spending. The problem is the traditional defence industry can’t absorb it.
A €10 billion programme for six warships. Four years behind, prime contractor fired, Dutch shipyard, French software, German finger-pointing. This is foie gras defence spend. Force-feeding money into a procurement system built for 15-year timelines, not the age of $500 Shahed drones. The EU’s Agile Fund (€115 million in grants with four-month turnarounds for defence startups) is the right direction.
Notable Quotes
“Anthropic is monetising at roughly $211 per monthly user versus OpenAI at $25 per weekly user. An 8x difference in monetisation efficiency.” -Lomax Ward
“Watch out when the media transposes ARR for annualised run rates. There’s a lot of PR going on in there.” -Dan Bowyer
“Private credit is big, but it’s not going to bring down the whole house of cards. US public equities is $68 trillion.” -Lomax Ward
“We can’t even get a SaaS listing away in Europe.” -Lomax Ward
My prediction
Anthropic becomes Europe’s AI partner. Not overtly. Just slowly, deal by deal, government by government, enterprise by enterprise. The default choice.
Final Thoughts
The structural gaps are opening up. Climate tech is being rebuilt under new names. Defence procurement is broken in ways that only startups can fix. Anthropic is expanding into EMEA faster than anyone expected. For investors, model the mega-IPO capital drain into your fundraising timeline – half a trillion in new public equity doesn’t come from nowhere. The secondary market data tells a clearer story than the press releases. The valuations are converging. The positioning is diverging.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Anthropic growing faster than OpenAI in enterprise AI?
Anthropic holds 32% of the enterprise LLM API market versus OpenAI's 25%, and monetises at roughly 8x the rate per user. According to Lomax Ward, Anthropic has "a much cleaner narrative and equity story" than OpenAI, with over 1,000 enterprise customers spending more than $1 million annually. Its ethical stance – drawing a line at autonomous weapons and mass surveillance – is resonating with European buyers and talent.
What is the Mythos AI model and why does it matter for cybersecurity?
Mythos is Anthropic's latest frontier model. In cybersecurity benchmarks, it achieved a 72.4% exploit-to-vulnerability ratio, up from 14.4% for Opus 4.6 and 4% for Sonnet 4.6. As Dan Bowyer put it, "that's not a step change – that's a different sport." Only 40 organisations are testing it through Project Glasswing. AI-driven cyber attacks have reportedly increased 1,500%.
Will the 2026 mega-IPOs drain capital from European venture?
SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could collectively require $150-450 billion in primary capital – comparable to the entire $231 billion of US equity capital formation in 2025. That capital competes with the same institutional allocators that fund European venture funds.
How are companies rebranding ESG and climate tech investment?
87% of US companies increased sustainability spending in 2025 but under different language – "energy security" replaces "decarbonisation," "resilience" replaces "emissions." Climate tech VC was up 8%. The Iran energy shock and Trump's anti-ESG rhetoric accelerated the reframing of renewables as a geopolitical asset rather than an ideological cause. As Dan noted, the 1973 oil crisis gave France its nuclear programme for the same reason – survival, not ideology.
Why is Germany struggling to spend its increased defence budget?
Germany's procurement system was built for 15-year, multi-billion-euro programmes. A €10 billion warship programme is four years behind schedule with the prime contractor fired. The EU's new Agile Fund – €115 million in grants with four-month turnarounds – signals a shift toward startup-speed defence procurement.